Table of Contents - UHMW-PE Industry Revival

STA*Research - Specialist consultants on polyolefins What's New What We Do Specialties Biography UHMWPE 2011 Bimodal PE

Opportunities In Ultra-High Molecular Weight Polyethylene:

The Industry Revival

Table of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. 1

1.1.         INDUSTRY OUTLOOK. 1

1.1.1. Introduction. 1

1.1.2. Market Drivers, Restraints, & Demand Growth. 2

1.1.2.1. High Modulus Fibers - Drivers. 3

1.1.2.2. High Modulus Fibers - Restraints. 7

1.1.2.3. Battery Separators & Porous Membranes - Drivers. 9

1.1.2.4. Battery Separators & Porous Membranes - Restraints. 11

1.1.2.1. Medical Markets - Drivers. 12

Total Joint Replacement - Drivers. 13

Total Disc Replacement in the Lumbar Spine - Drivers. 13

Total Disc Replacement in the Cervical Spine - Drivers. 14

1.1.2.2. Medical Markets - Restraints. 15

Total Joint Replacement - Restraints. 15

Total Disc Replacement in the Lumbar Spine (LDR) - Restraints. 16

Total Disc Replacement in the Cervical Spine (CDR) - Restraints. 17

Market Restraints for both LDR and CDR. 17

1.1.2.3. Machinery, Liners, Industrial Parts - Drivers. 19

1.1.2.4. Machinery, Liners, Industrial Parts- Restraints. 20

1.1.3. Global supply & supply/demand balance. 20

Figure 1 - Global Capacity For UHMW-PE - Q1 2011. 21

Figure 2 - Projected Global Supply/Demand Balance For UHMW-PE. 22

1.2.         Competitive Environment & Strategic Initiatives. 23

1.2.1. Globalization. 23

Figure 3 - Distribution Channels For UHMW-PE Resins. 23

1.2.2. Differentiation. 24

1.2.3. Cost structure. 25

Table 1 - Manufacturing Economics Overview.. 27

1.2.4. New entrants. 28

1.3.         Developments in Technology. 29

1.3.1. Production technology. 29

1.3.2. Conversion & application technologies. 31

1.3.3. Speculative Future Developments. 32

1.4.         Opportunity Forecast & Profit Potential. 35

1.5.         Key Factors for Success. 38

2. Technology analysis. 41

2.1.         UHMW-PE DEFINITION AND DISTINGUISHING CHARACTERISTICS. 41

2.1.1. Viscosity/Molecular Weight Conventions. 41

Figure 4 - Molecular Weight of UHMWPE vs. Intrinsic Viscosity. 43

2.1.2. Defining Performance Characteristics. 43

Table 2 - Typical Average Physical Properties of HDPE and UHMW-PE. 45

2.1.3. MW, MWD & Performance Relationships. 45

Figure 5 - Relative Volumetric Wear of Various Materials. 46

Table 3 - Impact Strength Of UHMW-PE Compared To Engineering Plastics. 47

2.1.4. Overview of current commercial offerings. 48

Table 4: Ticona's UHMW-PE Product Range. 49

2.2.         UHMW-PE COST STRUCTURE & MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY. 51

2.2.1. Manufacturing overview & basis for evaluation. 51

2.2.1.1. Historical Development 51

2.2.1.2. Manufacturing Process Type. 51

2.2.1.3. Product Morphology Aspects. 53

2.2.1.4. Catalyst System Design. 54

Table 5 - Requirements for Medical Grade UHMW-PE Powders. 56

2.2.1.5. Basis For Evaluation. 57

Cost basis for evaluation. 58

Table 6 - Assumed Prices And Costs For Raw Materials & Utilities. 58

Nameplate Grade. 59

2.2.2. Basic Manufacturing Technology. 60

2.2.2.1. Process description & flow scheme. 60

2.2.2.2. Catalyst and raw material preparation. 60

Catalyst Manufacture. 60

Purchased Catalyst Case. 62

Figure 6 - Process Flow Diagram for Production of UHMW-PE. 63

Catalyst morphology adjustment 67

Catalyst feed preparation. 68

2.2.2.3. Polymerization. 68

Nameplate grade recipe. 70

2.2.2.4. Polymer recovery. 71

2.2.2.5. Storage & dispatch. 71

2.2.2.6. Diluent purification & recovery. 72

2.2.3. Process Economics. 73

Table 7 - Manufacturing Costs for UHMW-PE by a CSTR Cascade Slurry Process. 75

2.2.3.1. Fixed Operating Costs 78

2.2.4. Economic Variation Analysis. 81

2.2.4.1. Production scale effects. 81

Table 8 - UHMW-PE Cost Sensitivity To Plant Capacity. 81

2.2.4.2. Reduced Output 82

Table 9 - Sensitivity of Production Costs to Reduced Plant Output 82

2.2.4.3. Partial Deashing. 83

2.2.4.4. Production of Ultra-fine Particles. 84

2.2.5. Speculative Future Developments. 85

2.2.5.1. Production Technology. 85

2.2.5.2. Conversion & Application Technologies. 87

2.2.5.3. New Product & Market Development Scenario. 89

Melt processability. 89

Solid state extrusion of profiles. 90

In-situ nanocomposites. 91

Cross-linked "Rigid and Tough" (RT) UHMW-PE. 92

Gel extrusion of porous membranes. 92

2.2.5.4. Overall conclusions and potential scenario. 93

2.2.6. Profit Potential Down The Value Chain. 93

2.3.         PROCESSING OF UHMW-PE & DEVELOPMENTS IN CONVERSION TECHNOLOGY. 96

2.3.1. Compression Molding. 97

2.3.2. Direct Compression Molding. 98

2.3.3. Machining Of Consolidated UHMW-PE. 99

2.3.4. Ultra-High Pressure Annealing. 100

Table 10 - Comparative Properties of RT and Conventional UHMW-PE. 101

Figure 7 - Typical Impact Strength & Elastic Modulus Domains For Various Plastics. 102

Figure 8 - Phase diagram for UHMW-PE. 103

Figure 9 - Routes to highly crystalline crosslinked UHMW-PE. 105

2.3.5. Ram Extrusion. 106

2.3.6. Tube extrusion. 107

Table 11 - Properties of UHMW-PE Nanocomposites. 109

2.3.7. Solid State Extrusion (SSE) 110

2.3.8. Injection Molding. 112

2.3.9. Fiber Gel-Spinning. 114

2.3.10. Film Gel-Extrusion for Porous Membranes. 115

Figure 10 - Production of UHMW-PE gels. 116

2.3.11. Forming And Joining. 118

2.3.12. Post-Treatment & Compounding. 119

3. Market analysis. 123

3.1.         Introduction. 123

Table 12 - Typical Applications For UHMW-PE. 124

3.2.         High Modulus Fibers. 126

3.2.1. UHMW-PE Fibers - Overview.. 126

Table 12 - Super-Fiber Comparison. 127

3.2.2. UHMW-PE Fibers - Global Supply. 128

3.2.2.1. Global Fiber Capacity Listing. 128

Table 13 - Capacities of 13 Leading UHMW-PE Fiber Producers (tons/year) 129

3.2.2.2. Capsules of 12 UHMW-PE Fiber Producers. 134

Fiber Producer A. 134

Table 14 - UHMW-PE Fiber Producer Market Shares and Regional Distributions. 137

Fiber Producer B. 138

DSM Dyneema. 140

Honeywell Advanced Fibers & Composites. 143

Fiber Producer C. 145

Fiber Producer D.. 146

Fiber Producer E. 147

Fiber Producer F. 148

Fiber Producer G.. 149

Fiber Producer H.. 150

Fiber Producer J 152

Toyobo Co. Ltd. 153

3.2.3. UHMW-PE Fibers - Production Technologies. 155

3.2.3.1. Gel Spinning. 155

Figure 11 - Gel Spinning of UHMW-PE Fibers. 156

3.2.3.2. Solid State Extrusion. 159

Figure 12 - Powder compaction in the SSE process. 161

Figure 13 - Ultra-drawing, annealing and fibrillation in the SSE process. 162

Future Developments in Solid State Extrusion. 164

3.2.3.3. Rigid Unidirectional (UD) Panels. 165

3.2.4. UHMW-PE Fiber Market Review.. 167

3.2.4.1. Anti-Ballistic Armor. 167

Antiballistic vests. 167

Table 15 - NIJ Standard 0101.06 Protection Chart 169

Military helmets. 171

Vehicle protection. 172

3.2.4.2. Cut Protection. 175

3.2.4.3. Ropes & Cordage. 177

Heavy lift slings. 178

Marine moorings. 179

Sports & recreation. 183

Aquaculture & fishing. 184

Medical 186

Industrial & Other. 186

3.2.4.4. Other UHMW-PE fiber applications. 188

Airfreight 188

Radomes. 189

Cryogenic applications. 189

Hurricane-proof curtains. 190

Composites. 190

3.2.5. UHMW-PE Fibers - Market Forecast. 192

Table 16 - Breakdown of The Global UHMW-PE Fiber Market by Application. 192

Table 17 - UHMW-PE Fiber Demand Projection By Region. 194

Figure 14 - Global Supply/Demand for UHMW-PE Fibers. 195

3.3.         UHMW-PE Based Battery Separators & Porous Membranes. 197

3.3.1. Introduction. 197

3.3.1.1. Battery Separators - Market Review.. 198

Table 18 - Chemistries of Common Battery Types. 199

3.3.1.2. Battery Separators - Market Review: Batteries for Electric Vehicles. 201

Figure 15 - Historical Prices and Specific Energy Trends for Li-Ion Batteries. 205

Figure 16 - Possible Li-Ion Battery Cost Pathways. 206

Figure 17 - Projected Penetration of Electric Vehicles Into Passenger Car Markets. 208

Figure 18 - Global Production of HEV/PHEV/EV Batteries for New Cars. 209

Table 19 - Producers of Lithium Ion Batteries for Electric Vehicles. 210

3.3.1.3. Battery Separators - Cell Structure & Composition. 215

Figure 19 - Ragone Plot Comparison of Electrochemical Devices. 215

Figure 20 - Typical Structure of a Lithium Ion Battery. 217

3.3.1.4. Battery Separators - Separator Design & Performance Requirements. 218

3.3.1.5. Battery Separators - Producers and Their Technologies. 221

Figure 21 - Production of UHMW-PE gels. 222

Figure 22 - Wet Process Separators - Micro-porous Fine Fibrous Network. 224

Table 20 - Producers of Battery Separators & Their Technologies. 226

3.3.1.6. Porous Membranes - Breathable Films, Filters & Other Uses. 229

3.3.1.7. Porous Membranes - Market Forecast 231

Table 21 - Demand Projection for UHMW-PE in Battery Separators (tons) 233

3.4.         Medical Markets for UHMW-PE. 234

3.4.1. Introduction. 234

3.4.2. Definitions. 235

3.4.3. The Material 237

Figure 23 - Processing Steps in the Manufacture of Arthroplasty Medical Devices. 240

3.4.4. UHMW-PE in Total Joint Arthroplasty - Market Review.. 241

Figure 24 -  Total Joint Arthroplasty. 243

3.4.4.1. UHMW-PE in Total Hip Arthroplasty - Market Review.. 244

Figure 25 - Types of Human Joints and Mechanical Equivalents. 245

Figure 26 - Hip Implant 246

Figure 27 - Combination of Materials in Total Hip Replacement 248

Figure 28 - Acetabular Cup with various materials that form the lining. 249

The Wear Problem.. 249

Figure 29 - Example of wear debris from an UHMW-PE implant 250

The Role of Medical Authorities. 251

3.4.4.2. UHMWPE in Total Knee Arthroplasty - Market Review.. 253

Figure 30 - Human Skeleton. 254

Figure 31 - Orthopedic Components in Total Knee Arthroplasty. 256

3.4.4.3. UHMWPE in Total Shoulder Arthroplasty - Market Review.. 257

Figure 32 - Glenohumeral Joint 257

Figure 33 - Shoulder Joint Replacement 258

Figure 34 - Orthopedic Components in Conventional Total Shoulder Joint Replacement 259

Figure 35 - Orthopedic Components in Reverse Total Shoulder Arthroplasty. 260

Figure 36 - Major Joint Replacement Surgeries in U.S. 261

3.4.4.4. UHMW-PE in Total Elbow and Ankle Arthroplasties - Market Review.. 262

Figure 37 - Orthopedic Components in Total Elbow Arthroplasty. 263

Figure 38 - Total Ankle Replacement (TAR) 264

Figure 39 - Orthopedic Components in Total Ankle Replacement 265

3.4.4.5. UHMW-PE in Total Spine Arthroplasty - Market Review.. 266

Figure 40 - The Vertebral Column (Spine) 269

Figure 41 - Orthopedic Components in Total Disc Replacement (Lumbar Spine) 270

Figure 42 - Orthopedic Components in Total Disc Replacement (Cervical Spine) 273

Table 22 - Cervical Disc Prostheses Under Investigation in the U.S. 274

3.4.5. UHMW-PE in Medical Applications - Market Forecast. 275

Figure 43 - Projected World Total Number of Arthroplasties. 278

Table 23 - Demand for UHMW-PE in Medical Applications to 2030. 279

3.5.         UHMW-PE Piping. 280

Table 24 - UHMW-PE Pipe Extruders In China. 280

3.6.         UHMW-PE DEMAND SUMMARY. 281

Figure 44 - Global Demand For UHMW-PE By Application - 2010. 282

Table 25 - Global Demand Growth Projection By Application. 283

Figure 45 - Global Demand For UHMW-PE By Region - 2010. 284

Table 26 - Global Demand Growth Projection By Region. 285

3.7.         Global Supply/Demand & Key Players. 286

3.7.1. Global Production Capacity. 286

Table 27 - Global Production Capacity For UHMW-PE. 289

3.7.2. Global Supply/Demand Projection. 291

Figure 46 - Projected Global Supply/Demand Balance For UHMW-PE. 291

Table 28 - Regional Supply, Demand and Trade in UHMW-PE, kilotons. 292

3.7.3. Profiles of Key Industry Players - Product offerings & apparent strategies. 293

3.7.3.1. UHMW-PE Producer A.. 293

3.7.3.2. LyondellBasell Polyolefins - An Historical Note. 295

3.7.3.3. UHMW-PE Producer B. 295

3.7.3.4. Braskem (former Polialden unit) 298

3.7.3.5. DSM... 301

3.7.3.6. UHMW-PE Producer C. 304

3.7.3.7. UHMW-PE Producer D.. 305

3.7.3.8. Mitsui Petrochemical 306

Table 28 - Mitsui Chemicals' Polyolefin Product Range. 308

3.7.3.9. UHMW-PE Producer E. 311

3.7.3.10. UHMW-PE Producer F. 311

3.7.3.11. UHMW-PE Producer G.. 314

3.7.3.12. Ticona. 315

3.7.3.13. UHMW-PE Producer H.. 319

3.7.3.14. UHMW-PE Producer J 321

3.7.3.15. Other UHMW-PE Producers In China. 322